staceyjorgenson31415
1938029
1885
73
Edit : Completely stolen, but worth repeating, and repeating, until people actually listen. Thanks for your time
Mar 24, 2020 6:02 AM
staceyjorgenson31415
1938029
1885
73
Edit : Completely stolen, but worth repeating, and repeating, until people actually listen. Thanks for your time
dronir
Exponential also means that error bars blow up. If R0 is 2.5 ± 0.2, then R0^10 is 9500 ± 7600 using standard error propagation.
ReaperCDN
This is why any R0 above 1.5 is bad altogether. The variance swings wildly huge the higher that R gets. It's exponential.
Malinut
IRO 88,000 people. 3exp10 sum. Italy has 10%+ mortality now hospitals are overloaded. 9k dead.
Sitting101
I'm not good at maths either.
Magus25
A guy in the post office was diagnosed with having COVID for a few days. It's been nice knowing all of you, but my Amazon love killed me.
dogestyle
Remain calm and quarantine yourself. If you're infected, depending on your age and existing conditions, you're likely to survive it.
doubleyouexwhyandz
There are only 43,214 (as of 7am) confirmed in the US so who is the one person responsible for all of the cases?
InconspicuousConspicuity
I imagine the one guy who came back from wuhan.
PerkasieEric
Pretty sure my neighbor Scott. He did this.
grotjam
How many cases? 43,214. But then we only had 43,214 tests. Still...that's pretty good...
JonatanFuglevaag
There is likely over 800.000 infected in the US by now and that is the conservative estimate.
Silas007
10 iterations are 5 months ... how many months ago started the outbreak in the US again?
whatpassesforclever
Uh where did you get a 15 day turn around from?
Silas007
Median time from infection to cure (or death). Bbv the iterations overlap so now that I think about it should be more like half that.
whatpassesforclever
Ah, the post is about rate of infection spread, not disease running its course. And I think your stat is from first symptoms to resolution1/
whatpassesforclever
2/ rather than time of infection to resolution. Incubation alone is up to 14 days or so.
whatpassesforclever
The numbers get scary fast, while it’s dangerous to do quick math, I’m not claiming these are dead on but to the best of my researching so1/
whatpassesforclever
2/ far let’s begin: 55,225 confirmed cases in US right now, only testing those who need to be hospitalized. Let’s say 10k are resolved, so
D3vlin
Where is the rest of this? He goes on to explain about the healthcare system and how they can cope too
staceyjorgenson31415
Be fucked if I know. All I did was steal it and post it. Was fairly well “medicated” when I did it ??
mindstorm8191
I think that's more the point. Everyone's gonna get it, we just need to limit how quickly that happens, so hospital beds don't fill up
Aubanis
factorials. 1.4^10 is actually 29 not 14, but his point remains. 3^10 is 59,049. stay the fuck home
BackdoorCryptography
Exponential or monomial, depending which you set as the variable. Factorials are only defined for natural numbers.
mav81
yea, 1.3 is 14
Understopper
Earlier in the video (linger version) he explains that average infections for influenza is 1.3 to 1.4 people per person. 1.3^10 is the 14.
Understopper
*longer
RuffleMyFluffles
Dang yeah. 1.3^10 and 3^10 are significantly different...
FunkiePieBandit
Normal flu would be around 30, not 14?
HerraRatatoskr
He said it was 1.3 to 1.4. 1.3^10 is roughly 14, and 1.4^10 is about 29
TheBestTwin
Those are crazy numbers, definitely no rookies here.
DamnedIfYouDo
Someone turn this into a representative image of big macs and show it to Dotard Donnie.
RunicRasol
And now, consider that the virus can be spread, up to 14 days before your first cough, or sneeze from it. STAY HOME PEOPLE!
Bonsaipanda
Even longer - seems that some people have it with absolutely no symptoms and they go through the whole sickness (about 6 weeks).
ReadAMangaCalledAkumetsu
Or if you're Rand Paul, go to the gym while waiting for your test results.
iliketotellabsurdconspiracies
Hur-d-dur, I’m a republican, I don’t give a shit about my fellow humans. Being greedy is ok with me. Hur-d-dur
LifeOfTheCray
2 days before symptom actually
risalamalta
Swe government's said they haven't seen any cases w/o symptoms (mild symptoms they've seen). Got any source on spread from asymptomatics?
RunicRasol
Japan & other have found asymptomatic ppl https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/covid-19/asymptomatic-carriers-covid-19-make-it-tough-target
c00lbeans69
Sneezing isn't a symptom btw. Running nose rarely, but sneezing never. It dries your sinuses out
c00lbeans69
https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_3
ReadAMangaCalledAkumetsu
OH THANK FUCK. I know what dry sinuses feel like for myself, and I sure as fuck don't have that.
itsahorse
softsuit
Beautiful
SenselessBunchOfLetters
I wanted to upvote that but then it would've got 70 upvotes and I can't let that happen.
SayingThisIsTheWayRandomly
Now you can :)
SenselessBunchOfLetters
Now I will!
SenselessBunchOfLetters
Now I did!
licmasack
POST THAT !
licmasack
... using it to help a small kid understand why this is serious shit. Might even help enlighten some spoiled spring breakers
7heng
HE JUST DID !
EwgB
I had to check that for myself. Easily done in Excel. Damn, exponential functions are impressive.
darkbloodw0lf
isn't the normal flu on the 7th = 79.0855 people at 1.3* infection rate and at an infection rate of 3* for corona on the 7th = 4,096 people
darkbloodw0lf
opps 10* not 7 XD = flu(1.3*) = 962.2332785 people, Corona (3*) = 262,144 people
darkbloodw0lf
my math for this pretty much = Infected(number start) * (infection rate) = New infected + Infected(start) = Infected(number start(row 2))
alexcoldt
I'm an essential employee. If I've already had it and just don't know it yet I personally could have infected 100's. I could kill my town.
thegelatoking
People don’t naturally understand exponentially. If you double your stride and took 30 steps you would have circled the globe 26 times.
pijlenboog
His math is a bit off though ?
HotshotRobot
No it's not. He's rounding to make it simpler to understand.
NightA
1.4 (Infections per person) ^ 10 (cycles) = ~29 vs. 3 (infections per person) ^ 10 (cycles)= 59,049
RoutemasterFlash
Geometrical progressions can be pretty scary.
illumifoto1878
There was a academic article to simulate the global spreading of COVID19. Its R0 value was 3.8. 3.8^10=627821
derekjohn
Dated 23/January/2020.
illumifoto1878
It's reasonable to get an R0 this high at initial phase of spread since awareness and measurements were both not available.
illumifoto1878
https://archive.is/XCERo
LiquidHandSoap
In other words, stay the fuck inside.
staceyjorgenson31415
TheMalcontent
if it's 1.4 you'd be responsible for almost 29 people not 14
GrumpyGipsy
Not everybody is that familiarwith math. Not even rhe Prof.
MisterRichard
thank you
Mattibeenz
Thanks man
ThatGuyWhosFunAtParties
Actually more than that. The tenth layer is 29 people. But you should count everyone along the way. Same with the 3 example.
BullfrogStormcroak
Yeah, actual numbers are 97 and 88,000, respectively.
RoutemasterFlash
Yeah, the figure of 14 comes from an infection ratio of 1.3. The main point is that 59,000 is bigger my multiple orders of magnitude.
Silas007
At that point it would naturally slow down (there is just so much population to infect and it is increasingly likely some already had it)
RoutemasterFlash
Yeah, then he exponential curve becomes a sigmoid.
vuvuzevka
The 14 is for the 1.3 rate (1.3^10 ~= 13,79), kinda show how fast it grows though
Understopper
Yes. 1.3 to 1.4 doubles the rate. And that’s just at 10 iterations.
JeremyPeevin
59,049
whatpassesforclever
I guess I answered my own question...people just hit 3^10 and think that’s correct. If he gave the real number, everyone would call him liar
ImRodAndILikeToParty
Nice
TheOneWhoWasLeft
59,049 sick people, though, certainly? Not 59k deaths as the guy said in the video...?
ImRodAndILikeToParty
I didn't hear the word death or deaths in the video
fingerblast94
Doesn’t mean toon anything about deaths in the video, only “infects”
OhmyBandit
If only one in 1000 people who contacted it would die, that's still 59 deaths. Worth pondering over when you are done pondering your orb.
whatpassesforclever
Actually 88,572, why would you film this and release it with such a basic error?
LdaQuirm
~14 to 29
TechnicallyRight
Yeah, if you do it his way, you are comparing 8th teir to 10th tier, and 29 is more accurate but i see why he said 14, 10x1.4... simpler.
flexistraw
Uhh no. It’s 1.3^10=13.79 vs 3^10= 59,049
TechnicallyRight
And 1.4^10=28.9 He says 1.3 - 1.4 and then goes on to repeat 1.3 - 1.4.
flexistraw
Yes, but the point I was making is that ‘14’ is not derived from 1.4x10. Its derived from 1.3^10=~14
imgurj17
Haha yea, I checked this yesterday as I knew it shouldn’t be a round number +1
doubleyouexwhyandz
Those last 49 people were extra unlucky.
DoakMD
You know how many people I've infected? Zero. Because I've stayed in my fucking house.
giantkel
Is your username a goldeneye reference?
DoakMD
Yes it is.
narniasreal
How do you get your pizza and beer?
Blze001
Don't have the luxury, sadly.
TheyCallMeRoy
That's why those of us that can, do.
TheSexInstructor
You know how many I've infected? I've got no idea! I've been deemed essential and my co owner isn't closing until we're sure that stimulus
DoakMD
I'm very non-essential so I'm staying out of your way. Thank you for your work, I wish you all the best.
TheSexInstructor
Bill passes
Hyggefisen
I just got yelled at in the grocery store, because I told a man to keep som distance. I have anxiety an now I'm almost crying.
staceyjorgenson31415
For the half second it’d take to toe kick that Fuckin Asshole in the balls. I’d risk the 6’ distance recommendation ;-)
Fidess
By the time the flu gets passed on 10 times the number of infected is actually 29, but still 59049 is far worse. Stay home.
Memongo808
I thought covid 19 had a R nought of 2-2.5. still very bad I know.
blzbob
Ah yes. The horrifying math of R0 3. #stayhome
BrotherEstapol
I guess not everyone is aware that it's that much more infectious, which is why posts like this need to be in the front page!
leechdemon
Totally. My brain goes "3 is a little over double 1.4, so, not THAT bad...". Except that exponential growth is a motherfucker.
PicassoCT
And its mostly invisible..
Bonsaipanda
Current infected rate rises with about 33% more every day. The numbers start to add really quick at one point.
DidNoOneNoticeThis
Ehh. That's still probably just because we can't test all of our current infected. But yeah the number is still large.
ArcaneAlchemist
Who's telling you it's R3? Every primary source I find puts it at somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5
blzbob
It's been hard to pin down because its often asymptomatic in many people. But my comment was in ref to video above. his example was 3.
DougForcett
Back in January, when less than 5% of the Wuhan cases had even been diagnosed, the WHO estimated it at between 1.4-2.5.
ArcaneAlchemist
That doesn't answer my question.
DougForcett
This article puts it at between 2.79-3.28: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200214111519.htm (1)
DougForcett
End of the day though, R naught values are only going to be estimates until the full data set is compiled and even then will be very (2)
fowly
Check how old the data is
ReadAMangaCalledAkumetsu
Good math. This is why Rand Paul is a plague spreading fuck.
licmasack
.... and I can only hope that Trump, Pence, Mitch, Pompao, Devos, and whoeverthefuk is left of his cabinet all get it - and soon
Blrp0
Spreading fuck? Gotta get me some of that.
PicassoCT
Randy Paustilence
highspeedlowpassreturntoaltitude
Why are we demonizing someone who got it while trying to do their job? He got it at work; yes, working out at work, but if you're going (1)
JustAnotherRandomCommenter
he's not being demonised for getting it. he's being demonised for, having suspected he got it, continueing to interact with people.
highspeedlowpassreturntoaltitude
That would be the case if the tests were immediate, but they take 6-8 hours to process. He had no other symptoms, thus went on with his life
highspeedlowpassreturntoaltitude
to call him that you may as well call every doctor, pharmacist, grocery stocker, and mechanic who is right wing and gets sick a "plague (2)
highspeedlowpassreturntoaltitude
spreading fuck," or do you just not like him and you're using the collective hatred of libertarians within Imgur to spread a message (3)
highspeedlowpassreturntoaltitude
you've deemed important? If you disagree with someone's politics doesn't mean you have to hate them for doing their civic duty. (Fin)
ACSwineburne
Do you feel better after that load of nonsense? There is no correlation between calling Rand a moron and thinking doctors are "plague...".
bIadesman
1 "Everything is fine," Trump said. "It's going away," Trump said. "I have a natural ability to understand the virus," Trump Said. "Will
dontrike
Now we can tack on "the cure is worse than the virus" to that long list of stupidity from Trump.
3Davideo
When the bullshitter meets the unbullshittable.
dontrike
Don't forget "It's just one person" Trump said. "It's airtight or near airtight." "Some people get better by working." and many others.
bIadesman
1 Omg the "people are fine to go to work" bullshit," I can see it playing out down here in Texas, people look at me like I'm crazy
bIadesman
2 with my 3m mask on wearing latex gloves. While I go handle financial shit two months ahead of time. They listen to Trump and Mass Media
bIadesman
3 I read scientific articles. Virus stays in the air at least 3 hours, and a cough will spread particulate much larger than the virus,
bIadesman
4 throughout a large room within 5 minutes of the cough. They are angry they can't go to the bars and sit down restaurants, and are just
NoQuestionMarksInDeclarativeSentences
Citation on, "I have a natural ability to understand the virus"?
GlowstickJedi
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-51761880/trump-on-coronavirus-people-are-really-surprised-i-understand-this-stuff
SunAnvil
gothede
magemorpheus
Fuck, man. I really didn’t want this one to be real.
GlowstickJedi
I know. I understand people's doubt on this one. It's almost unbelievable.
bIadesman
People who ask for citations for something they can "hey google" are just suffering cognitive dissonance
NoQuestionMarksInDeclarativeSentences
This is laughable & here is why: #1 I get to see THEIR sources. I can question them, or agree. #2 I don't have to dig through ads to get...
NoQuestionMarksInDeclarativeSentences
their sources. #3. I don't want to give permission to google to record me (they still will, but now I can refrain from giving consent. #4...
NoQuestionMarksInDeclarativeSentences
On matters that I don't find CRUCIAL, this is considerably faster than dedicating my time to checking if that orange retard said YET ANOTHER
NoQuestionMarksInDeclarativeSentences
Here's why my legitimate question isn't cognitive dissonance: n - psychology...
NoQuestionMarksInDeclarativeSentences
the state of having inconsistent thoughts, beliefs, or attitudes, especially as relating to behavioral decisions and attitude change.
itsahorse
GlowstickJedi
In almost any other nation this tweet alone would have seen him removed from office for ineptitude
pseudopseudonym
At least we can still make fun of... *checks notes*... Brazil???
gutkom
in 3 weeks you guys in the USA are screwed (well your hospitals)
bIadesman
2 the Flu Vaccine work against it?" Trump asked "It's going to be like the 1918 Epidemic" his "Deep State" department, as he calls it, said
ThatGuyWhosFunAtParties
"This blindsided everyone"
bIadesman
3 three weeks earlier to wealthy donors.
ConsistentlyLateCommenter
Don't worry, he's going to restart the economy and let people out of their houses again!
bIadesman
Like a snake charmer but his hands are too small so he keeps dropping the flute
ConsistentlyLateCommenter
That's a funny visual
bIadesman
thebluegolem
Oh, please, please be true. He is so image obsessed this would upset him!
bIadesman
another
bIadesman
It is very true. I google trumpery and copy pasted it right from the google search.