quartershadow
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Published my first first-author paper of graduate school, showing that masks work only when everyone uses them (correctly). You can read the paper here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-94960-5 , free to the public!
For those more technical, or don't believe in peer-reviewed science, all my source code is here, run your own simulation: https://github.com/adamcatching/SARS_SEIR_Simulation
AssasinSwan
Congratulations on being published in Nature!
batnut
This is very cool!
pleaseconsiderthatImightbejoking
(correctly) well shit, we're doomed
IFoldlyGo
Makes me think of those Zombie flash games (where you had to blast the zombies before too many people got infected)
katwilmb
Awanita327
Congrats on your first first-author paper! Make sure you celebrate this awesome milestone :)
Rageofthepentahook
"You don't have to wear a mask any more" I don't have to wear a condom, but I'm still gonna
videopro10
As long as you don't shame people who choose NOT to wear a condom at the grocery store then you do you.
DarthFutuza
What's the blue vs black line on your graphs?
Bystandr
Really, even after we are all vaccinated, masks will help. They will depress all kinds of bacterial and viral maladies. Look at Japan- they
Bystandr
were common wear before COVID, they will be used after, too.
kitnnicole9
Congrats on the nature paper!@op
tiredandtrusted
Top stuff.
LordHosk
Children under 12 cant be vaccinated. 99.9% of all children under 12 are unvaccinated.
baecaughtmewhackin
Remember "flatten the curve?" Pepperidge Farm remembers.
inxed
Well done and congratulations!
Smellthisfart
Sad thing is no stat, proof, fact will change these antivaxers and antimaskers. Honestly…it’s fucking sad…and worse, they choose to be cunts
DefinitelyNotMadeOfBees
Interesting to use ABM vs ODE. Can you compare to an ODE-based approach to test yours? Also, how'd your model handle vaccination?
sirava
You should have the deaths fall out of the graph into a hopper
SenselessSentiments
Seems like a different field than your usual field of Enterovirus, but congrats!
quartershadow
Someone did their research, that's what we do when the lab wasn't shut down during the pandemic, we are back to Enteroviruses again
Magnebro
Hooray for data, hooray for source code, hooray for science!
harrison100012
Brilliant OP Post this throughout social media please
destoration
My issue with wearing masks is there are few people educating on the correct masks and procedures to use. Informed/correct usage=better too
ComradeNinjaCow
Great work, keep it up!
jarable
This Pong game is really hard....
transhumanisticrecluse
and real masks, not that shite with "improved airflow" by not filtering jack shit
FrenchHorny29
Thanks for sharing! What does the bottom line represent in the graph?
Burke616
The bottom edge of the image.
quartershadow
Number of infected at that day in black, total infected in blue
Gherkincensed
Said it backwards bud, black is total, blue is that day.
HeadJamistan
Backwards?
wibbIywobbIytimeywimey
Im confused… sorry. So black is total number of infections? Blue is current infections?
dracovivi
Yeah, unless I'm missing something, how could blue be total infections, yet falls to 0, while black climbs and "plateaus"?
Gherkincensed
Yea he just said it backwards. Black is total line, it checks out.
LucyLovegood
Maybe if 100% are infected there's no new infections each day?
LucyLovegood
Wait no that would be the opposite colours to what OP said above. Sorry, no idea..
SElfishDouche
Well I just Googled, “why masks won’t stop the spread of COVID” and have over 100 hits so check…mate /s
GarnetCat
Can you do one that simulates the effectiveness of quarantining? (1/3)
hippopotamuspus
3Blue1Brown does some good simulations, though not peer reviewed... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
GarnetCat
One where a dot, once infected, either completes its current traversal or maybe makes one more, but then sits immobile on the edge of (2/3)
GarnetCat
the field, only contacting whatever dots run into it, until its infection clears? (3/3)
MadeMyAccountJustForThis
You could look at real numbers, new zealand april last year. I know it is real because I live here, but i guess i could be fake too
quartershadow
Yup! In the paper we compared mask usage vs social distancing, with different levels of participation, social distancing is not as effective
HandoB4Javert
Social distancing might be the equivalent of the withdrawal method of birth control?
HumanBlooper
Good old pull and pray
PoppinLochNessHopster
That's like saying social distancing doesn't work if you often go near people. Pull out works if done right.
StrongholdSlayerSexDungeon
http://modelingcommons.org/browse/one_model/6282#model_tabs_browse_nlw
StrongholdSlayerSexDungeon
First click setup before you click play
ThatDudeRich
Let me preface this by saying I believe that vaccinations and mask wearing is an effective and necessary means for ending the pandemic (1/?)
ThatDudeRich
but i'm curious as to how you would accurately calculate the efficacy of mask wearing in such a programming model? We know that wearing(2/?)
ThatDudeRich
masks helps reduce spread by limiting the travel (& also capturing a small percentage)of droplets, but I couldn't imagine how we would (3/?)
ThatDudeRich
get real world statistics. Unless the efficacy of masks in the equation is based off of a laboratory model or population statistics? (4/4)
AlwaysUpvotesCatgirls
Lol at thinking people who don’t believe in peer review could run your code. XD
michealangleo
idk man, i know a few coders who dont believe in peer reviews or pull results
haggerton
Peer review can and does let shit thru. The "vaccine -> autism" article was published in the Lancet, that's a reputed peer reviewed journal.
quartershadow
We were in peer review for 8 months, 3 revisions, most of that time updating code, rerunning math, better matching data to real world stats
AlwaysUpvotesCatgirls
Oh, by no means is it perfect. There’s issues, but the system generally works.
haggerton
My point is that just bc someone will double check a peer reviewed article's conclusions doesn't mean they don't "believe in peer review".
AlwaysUpvotesCatgirls
Oh no. Definitely. I don’t mean that someone who questions wouldn’t believe.
Burke616
"I put your code in the youtube search bar and got a music video. Fuck you for the rickroll!"
iovebeans
There's a joke here about code reviews and how no one does them, I just know it.
michealangleo
i added "idk man, i know a few coders who dont believe in peer reviews or pull results"
BarryTheCyborg
There are as many as there are completed code reviews. Almost 0
Blutsaugher
LoyalToTheEnd
I want to run his code…. It looks interesting. That said I do believe in peer review, so I guess I’m a bad one to judge
jdarksun
It's just python, only takes a minute to get an environment going. That said, NEVER run code you can't review yourself.
quartershadow
Thanks, I am kicking myself for not setting up a miniconda env to run, but any decent laptop can run it! Making the animations takes awhile
jafwo2718
The evidence is stark. No masks, sharp peak, hospitals overwhelmed, lots of suffering. With 80%, still 75% get the disease but ,..
jafwo2718
The current infected curve is flattened significantly. Would be interested to know the underlying assumptions like chance of infection when
jafwo2718
Uninfected runs into infected for both masked and unmasked.
jafwo2718
I read the paper. Really well done study. Thanks. This information is important for policy makers.